The NFL Draft is my favorite event of the year. It’s a time of delusional optimism for the thirty-one franchises who aren’t the Kansas City Chiefs.
Oh, that linebacker your team got in the fourth round you’d never heard of before? That highlight package ESPN showed looked a lot like Luke Kuechly if you ask me. Your team drafted a center from some MAC school with a comp pick? You’ve never seen one Northern Illinois game in your life, but nothing screams pass-pro like a directional midwest school.
For quarterbacks the extrapolation is out of control. Everyone is the next John Elway or Patrick Mahomes or Andrew Luck. You know which prospect wasn’t Patrick Mahomes in college? Patrick Mahomes! The dude didn’t even know how to identify a Mike linebacker, he just played on arm strength and vibes at Texas Tech. You know which prospect wasn’t Andrew Luck in the NFL? Andrew Luck! Even Andrew Luck in a bad situation won’t turn out to be “Andrew Luck”. He dragged the Colts to two AFC South championships; but the Colts roster was just in such bad shape that Andrew Luck’s best wasn’t good enough to be serious contenders. The Colts leading receiver Luck’s rookie year was a thirty-four year old Reggie Wayne, who posted an unreal 1,355 receiving yards, second most all-time for an age thirty-four receiver.
Point is where you end up as a quarterback can make or break your entire career. Brock Purdy is a better football player than Mac Jones, was in college and is in the NFL. However, if Mac Jones was in San Francisco he probably wouldn’t be spending this off-season updating his LinkedIn profile. If Patrick Mahomes didn’t have Alex Smith and Andy Reid then odds are he’d still be a really good quarterback, but I’d bet he wouldn’t have three Lombardi Trophies.
This year there are six quarterbacks who are at least in the first round conversation. Instead of just mocking them to the teams with the highest picks I tried to put them in the best landing spot for each of them that’s at least semi-realistic. Kansas City or San Francisco would be the best spot for anyone but they’re not taking a quarterback.
I know only like two of these are actually realistic. A guy can dream though.
Caleb Williams: Minnesota Vikings
What a world we’d be living in if Caleb got to play in Minnesota. When I’m looking at fit I’m mostly considering two things: the head coach/offensive system, and the personnel he’d be surrounded by. The Vikings check both of those boxes with ease for Caleb Williams.
Essentially everyone has Williams ranked as the top quarterback draft in this year’s class. The only consistent knock I’ve seen is that he plays too much out of structure and that his play style won’t translate to the NFL.
I couldn’t disagree more. Simply because Caleb was forced to play out of structure last season doesn’t mean that he can’t play within structure. Caleb went into every game knowing he was going to have to drop forty just to have a chance. Caleb’s 2023 season was one of the worst cases of Superman Syndrome I’ve ever seen, needing like you have to overcompensate because your teammates aren’t going to get it done.
That leads to problems, the biggest one being holding onto the ball for far too long. Caleb had an average 3.21 seconds to throw last season, the highest time of any draft eligible quarterback in this year's draft class. Caleb was constantly being pushed off his spot and dealing with pressure in his face last season. His receivers also didn’t create separation consistently enough, which led to Caleb having to hold on and try to make a Superman play downfield because that was his only option.
It’s tough to play quarterback without the rest of the offense helping you out. In Caleb’s Heisman season the biggest difference was that he got to throw to Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison. With the Vikings Caleb would be reunited with Addison and as a side note, he’d also be throwing to the best receiver in the league, Justin Jefferson. Minnesota creates a perfect situation for Williams to be himself and thrive, surrounded by some of the best weapons in the league.
Drake Maye: Atlanta Falcons
Last year I went to the Rams/Seahawks game in Seattle. I was in the Hawk’s Nest, which is the North endzone. So I got to have an endzone view of Matthew Stafford dialing the ball into perfect throwing windows over the middle of the field. Sean McVay is calling the plays in LA of course, but Zac Robinson was the passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in Los Angeles. He’s coming over to Atlanta to be the offensive coordinator, and I can’t wait to see it.
Robinson has been with the Rams learning under McVay since 2019. He played his college ball at Oklahoma State under Mike Gundy, one of the brightest offensive minds in college football. So he’s spent years working with two of the top ten offensive minds in football across all levels in my opinion.
Bring in Drake Maye; what does he do well? He throws over the middle of the field, has a massive arm, great athleticism, and brings a creative element to his game. Growing up he was a star on his basketball and baseball teams, so football wasn’t his only sport. He wasn’t specialized like a lot of other top prospects are, and it shows. Maye plays the game like he’s the best athlete on the field, not concerned about the do’s and don’ts of the quarterback position. Sometimes that leads to some easy misses and footwork issues, other times it leads to left handed touchdown passes as he’s getting tackled.
In Atlanta Maye would get to throw to some of the best weapons in the league with Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson; and he’d be running a quarterback friendly system that plays to his strengths under Zac Robinson.
Jayden Daniels: Washington Commanders
The word of the day for Jayden Daniels is “quick”. He gets the ball out quick, moves in the pocket quick, takes off quick; everything is bang bang when he plays. Daniels played so fast he was giving me point guard vibes. He’s running the offense, he knows where his receivers are going to be, and if they’re not there Daniels knows he can take off and make a play on his own.
That’s really all he would have to do in Washington, especially his rookie year. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury likes to just line folks up and let them go to work. In 2021 Kingbury had DeAndre Hopkins line up on the left 88.3% of the time according to PFF, doesn’t get much simpler than that. Kingsbury did adjust his offense over time a bit, but at his core he’s an Air Raid man. Mike Leach, the Father of the Air Raid, wanted to flood the field and make the quarterback's job as easy as possible.
I’m a believer in Kingsbury, and I’m a big believer in both Terry Mclaurin and Jahan Dotson, Washington’s top two receivers. Daniels, like any quarterback, is going to need some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL. In Washington, though, Kingsbury can put Daniels in positions to play to his strengths and have a successful rookie season. You can’t ask for more than a quarterback friendly system that fits your strengths and great receivers to get the ball to.
J.J. McCarthy: Miami Dolphins
My personal favorite landing spot on the list, also the most unrealistic.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel LOVES quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tua excels at processing quickly and distributing the ball out accurately.
At Michigan that’s basically all McCarthy was asked to do. Michigan’s offense looks a lot different than Miami, but I think a lot of the asks are the same.
Miami asks Tua to get the ball out quickly and accurately. Mike McDaniel creates answers for Tua within the offense, even creating a new “Cheat Motion” last year that no one had answers for. Everything in Miami was quick, get the ball to the playmakers as fast as possible and let them do their thing.
The offense that McCarthy was running at Michigan didn’t look anything like what McDaniel runs in Miami. McCarthy wasn’t asked to throw nearly as much as the other top prospects; when he did throw though it was a lot longer developing passing concepts. McCarthy was asked to sit in the pocket or roll out, as opposed to getting the ball and hitting the answer.
Like I said though, a lot of the asks were the same. McCarthy, like Tua, wasn’t asked to “do as much” as some of their peers, but they excelled at what they were asked to do. McCarthy actually had quite a bit of responsibility relative to other college quarterbacks as far as checks and protections, but his biggest knock is that he doesn’t have as many throws as some of the other guys. It’s a knock that I don’t think is significant because of what he showed with what he was asked to do, but I’m just acknowledging that question that some have about him.
McCarthy’s biggest strength, to me, is his touch on throws ten to twenty yards down the field. He can fire it into tight windows, he can layer it over linebackers, he can throw accurately running both to his right and to his left. He’s also an underrated athlete. He’s not going to be Michael Vick but you can easily move him around and create extra havoc for the opposing defense.
Tua’s hands are quicker than McCarthy, by that I mean his ability to get the ball out right away. McCarthy wasn’t asked to do that at Michigan so I think it’s more just something he’d have to learn than something he can’t do. He can make every throw that Tua can though, and his athleticism would allow McDaniel to unlock the offense to levels that I don’t think Tua can. McCarthy in Miami would be must watch television on an already electric offense.
Bo Nix: Detroit Lions
Nix is funny because he’s pegged as this game manager, get the ball out, point guard type player; then once and a while he’ll just be running around the backfield playing tag with defenders until he can find an open guy.
The most common knock I’ve heard on Nix is that his production is manufacturing within the offense; lots of screens and quick hitting passes and his playmakers are doing most of the work. That was a big part of what he was asked to do at Oregon, but there are plenty of NFL quarterbacks who are asked to do the exact same thing and they’re doing fine.
The two quarterbacks in the NFC Championship are great examples of that. When Goff was in Los Angeles with the Rams, coach Sean McVay was in his ear until the last possible second. Goff was basically a remote control quarterback for McVay to run the offense. In Detroit Goff has a lot more freedom, but the ability to just run the offense the right way is underrated.
In San Francisco, Brock Purdy’s biggest knock is that he’s only good because he has so many talented play makers to get the ball to. So did Jimmy G, and CJ Beathard, and Nick Mullins, and every other quarterback that’s played under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. What separates Purdy from all those other guys is his ability to extend plays with his athleticism when things break down.
That athleticism is what would separate Nix from Goff in Detroit. Nix has sixty-one college starts, the most all time, and could come in on day one and be an extension of the offensive coordinator like Goff was in Los Angeles. He can do everything Ben Johnson would ask, plus give Detroit that next level in their offense that Purdy gave to the Niners.
Michael Penix: Seattle Seahawks
This one is too easy. Penix getting to stay in Seattle while playing for his same offensive coordinator in a great situation makes too much sense.
Current Seahawks and former Washington Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb clearly knows how to put Penix in the best situations. Grubb had a lot of NFL twists in his offense last season at the University of Washington. I'm excited to see how he adapts to running an NFL offense with maybe some fun college twists to it.
It’s easy for both the quarterback and the offensive coordinator to be successful when they’re surrounded by stud receivers. At the University of Washington Michael Penix was throwing to what I think was the best receiving corps in the country; Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and & Jalen McMillan are all expected to be off the board pretty early in the NFL Draft. The Seahawks have one of the best three-deep receiving rooms in the league with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Penix would be stepping into as familiar of a situation as any rookie quarterback I can think of.
From Seattle’s perspective they’re also in a perfect situation to take a rookie quarterback. Geno Smith has two years left on his contract and will be thirty-five when that expires in 2025. The Seahawks definitely have some roster holes, but it’s a roster that should be competing for the playoffs. Penix could come in and sit behind Geno, I think he could even start right away too. That’s the beauty, Geno gives them the flexibility to just play whichever quarterback gives them the best chance to win.
-By Jake Cowden
Photo: University of Washington Athletics