Welp, the Super Bowl sucked…
Here I am, with 30 other fanbases who’s season’s ended in some combination of heartbreak and anger. All we can do is be mad for six months then saddle up again in September.
As I was staring at the wall thinking about how meaningless life is after the Super Bowl loss for the Niners, I started thinking about how hard it would be for them to make it back to New Orleans next year.
It is HARD to make it back, especially after losing the previous year. New England made it back and won in 2019 after losing to Nick Foles in 2018; and the last team to lose and make it back the next season was Buffalo in the 90’s (pour one out).
Just looking at the NFC playoffs I think Detroit, Green Bay, and the Rams are all going to be better than they were this season; and that doesn’t account for the other teams that didn’t make the playoffs.
So, with nothing to do until the NFL Draft I mapped out which teams I think will be improved, which teams I think will be on repeat in 2023, and which teams are going the wrong direction. (do you think I need to mention I’m doing it in alphabetical order based on category?)
Salary cap and free agent lists from Spotrac
Onwards & Upwards
Arizona Cardinals: None of us watched that “did you take the bus?” speech from Jonathan Gannon and had a good feeling about the Cardinals last year. However, they put up a fight every single week. They smacked the Cowboys and essentially ended Philadelphia’s season.
Next season they’re banking on a full season of healthy Kyler. Hollywood Brown is the only key unrestricted free agent, but with $57 million in cap space they have plenty of flexibility to bring him back and re-tool the roster.
Every Cardinals player I’ve heard talks about a night and day difference in culture between now and the previous regime. You can do whatever you want with that information, but I think the Cardinals can make a jump to somewhere between 8-10 wins.
Atlanta Falcons: I was unbelievably confident that Atlanta was going to win the NFC South last year. I thought they would create ways to get the ball in the hands of their best playmakers who they’ve spent three years worth of top ten picks on. Idk why I’d assume that.
New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson played under Mike Gundy in college, who's one of the best offensive coaches anywhere in the country; and coached under Sean McVay since the 2019 season. Add to the fact that Robinson *appears to have a basic level of common sense, and the Falcons are gonna be cooking this year.
Quarterback is obviously the big question mark. For the third year in a row they’ll be drafting eight overall, which is likely going to be too far to try and trade up for either Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, or Drake Maye. If one of them falls a bit then the Falcons should absolutely pull the trigger and try and get one of those guys.
Assuming Maye and Daniels will be out of reach, Justin Fields seems like the only option to me. I’ve seen people assuming a team would have to give up a 2nd and a 3rd for Fields, which I don't think is gonna happen. If Atlanta can get him for a 3rd and conditional 5th that becomes much more palatable. Not only would Fields immediately make the Falcons the heavy favorite in the NFC South, but he’d be dropped into the best situation of his career.
Chicago Bears: Last year actually wasn’t that bad for the Bears. We were expecting them to be the worst team in the league. 7-10 with wins over the Lions, Vikings, Browns, and a dismantling of the Commanders on national television isn’t too shabby.
Braxton Jones, a fifth round pick from Southern Utah in 2022, has become a good left tackle for them, which allows them to be aggressive trying to get one of the top receivers in the draft this year.
They HAVE to re-sign Jaylon Johnson at cornerback. The Bears released guard Cody Whitehair and safety Eddie Jackson, reportedly to clear cap space for Johnson. Whitehair and Jackson are two of my favorite players at their respective positions. Unfortunately, they're on the wrong side of thirty for a team looking to reload.
If the Bears re-sign Jackson, and get either Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze in the draft, their roster will look a lot younger and a lot more talented than a few years ago. It might be hard to get much more than seven wins this season, but they have a chance to be really good by the end of Caleb Williams' rookie deal.
Cincinnati Bengals: My predicted 2023 Super Bowl champion, their season went the wrong way in a hurry. Burrow was dealing with a calf injury which limited his mobility and the entire offense. I figured with an improved offensive line plus everyone they returned that they were the most talented roster in the league.
I’m gonna blame last season on Burrow’s injury and ignore everything else. They still might have the trickiest off-season in the league. They only have around $50 million in cap space. They had even more before the Tee Higgins franchise tag. Ideally they’d sign him to an extension, but it seems like they’re trending to let him play one more year then walk in free agency.
They still have to figure out what to do with D.J. Reader, Tyler Boyd, Chidobe Awuzie, and Jonah Williams most notably. The splits for the Bengals defense with and without defensive tackle D.J. Reader on the field were astounding; which isn’t a perfect metric but still paints an interesting picture. I’d expect Boyd to come back because he does so much “dirty work” in that Bengals receiving room, but there’s always a chance another team will give him a bigger contract than the Bengals are willing to pay. Jonah Williams is expected to command a contract in the $60 million range, so he’ll likely be moving on from the Bengals.
I have them in the right direction category because if Burrow is healthy they’re not going to win less than ten games, but they’re at the point where they’re having to make some really tough contract decisions, so it will be interesting to see how they handle this off-season.
Detroit Lions: How can it get better than last season? Two playoff wins, a division title, Dan Campbell became everyone's favorite coach, and Jared Goff resurrected his career and public perception. They’re already at the mountain top.
They’re only at a false peak, friends. They were one unlucky bounce off a face mask away from the Super Bowl against a team they’d beaten last season. The regular season was marked with uncharacteristic and inconsistent performances against Seattle, Green Bay, and Chicago; plus a stupid loss to Dallas that no one is to blame for but the referees.
Every team in the NFL is going to have dumb losses, but Detroit’s felt unnecessarily dumb and I think that will be an easy fix heading into next year. The reason why, and this is my biggest reason for optimism, is basically every significant player for them is on their rookie contract.
Amon-Ra St. Brown will likely sign an extension this off-season, and Penei Sewell will be due up shortly after, so that’s going to be changing her shortly. Think though: ARSB, Sewell, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Branch, Sam Laporta, Jack Campbell, Kerby Joseph, Aidan Hutchinson, Alim Mcneil, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Levi Onwuzurike, Jameson Williams, and Malcolm Rodriguez are all contributors and every single one of them is on their rookie deal.
None of their pending free agents are anyone that I’m majorly concerned about losing, I think they’ll be able to re-sign Graham Glasgow if they want to. The Lions have $48 million in cap room and would love to see them sign a defensive back like Jourdan Lewis, Eddie Jackson, or Rock-Ya Sin.
Add to the fact that they’re going to be pissed off this off season, Detroit has a good of a chance as anyone of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl next season.
Green Bay Packers: Man, what a ride 2023 was for Green Bay. I thought Jordan Love started the season really really well. There was like a five game stretch in the middle of the season where both Love and the Packers had a slump. They finished great though, including smashing the Lions on Thanksgiving and embarrassing the Cowboys in the playoffs.
Matt LaFleur is a top five coach in the league (Shanahan, Reid, John Harbaugh, McVay, LaFleur). Love showed he can be a plus quarterback, and with a full season of starting under his belt I expect a lot of the issues that popped up during the slump to improve. I didn’t have low expectations for Love, but I certainly didn’t expect him to play like he did.
The great thing about the Packers is their defense is just loaded with really talented players. All the time that they weren’t drafting a first round wide receiver they were drafting defensive lineman and secondary players, to the point where you feel really good about anyone they’re rolling out on defense.
Darnell Savage is a free agent and it seems like both he and the Packers want him back, they don’t have all the cap room in the world so I’m interested to see what they do to make that happen. Like Detroit, they have a great young corps that learned what it takes to win this season, and they should be a player in the NFC next season.
Houston Texans: There were certainly people who thought that Stroud was the best quarterback in last season’s draft, but he outplayed the expectations of even his most optimistic pre-draft supporters. Anyone who says that they did is lying . I certainly was nervous about Stroud’s pocket mobility. I thought Josh Rosen was the best quarterback in his draft class and I’ve been haunted by that train of thought every April since. As someone with Stroud on my dynasty team though I couldn’t be happier to have been wrong.
What a coaching job by Demeco Ryans as well. Houston had been terrible for years, then Ryans’ first year he comes in and completely turns the thing around. They’re in a position to really go for it and try to take advantage of Stroud’s rookie contract window, which is the absolute best case scenario for any organization.
They have about $74 million in cap room, but aren’t without holes to fill. A good chunk of their defensive line are free agents, as well as tight end Dalton Schultz who played a much bigger part in that offense than box scores would indicate.
Best case scenario for them is to retain all the guys they want to, and add a receiver on top of that. A player like Hollywood Brown or Van Jefferson to give them a third type of receiver that compliments Nico Collins and Tank Dell would be a great move.
The AFC South is suddenly loaded with awesome young quarterbacks, but Houston is my pick right now to repeat as Champs.
Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders finished last season 3-1 with three wins against their division; including a beatdown of the Chargers that ended up being the last nail in Brandon Staley’s coffin, and a Christmas win in Kansas City against the eventual champs.
You’ll notice a lot of the teams I’m high on have plenty of cap room, and the Raiders are no exception with about $55 million and essentially zero players I’m worried about retaining if I’m general manager Tom Telesco (who ironically lost his job as the Chargers GM after that Raiders game).
I’m not a believer in using free agency to solve all your problems. I don’t believe that works. But it can be a useful way to plug holes so you’re not pigeonholed into drafting a certain position come April. The problem for the Raiders is they have a lot of holes to plug.
My worry is that they’ll over pay and try to solve all their problems in one go around, which isn’t going to happen. They’re not winning the Super Bowl next season and that shouldn’t be the goal. They need to improve both lines of scrimmage, and add young playmakers at receiver and defensive back. I know that’s basically the whole roster, but they went 8-9 with an interim coach last year and what I thought was a really bad roster top to bottom. With a whole season of Antonio Pierce as the head coach and an improved roster I don’t see why they can’t be above .500.
Los Angeles Rams: What a draft class the Rams had last season. Obviously Puka Nacua was the star of the show. He played his high school ball at Orem High, about 45 minutes from where I live in Utah, so I got to watch him shatter the Utah High School record for single season receiving yards, and finish sixth nationally all-time.
Their entire class was fantastic though. Kobie Turner led all rookies with nine sacks, and he did it as an interior defensive lineman! Byron Young finished second among rookied with eight sacks. That’s unreal production from two rookies. Interior offensive lineman Steve Avila played every snap of the season, and according to PFF only allowed two sacks.
For a rebuilding team that didn’t have a first round draft pick, they took high floor players they felt could rejuvenate an aging and expensive roster and hit a home run.
The Rams now find themselves in a position with a great group of young players, $48 million in cap space that they don’t have to spend on retaining their own guys, and Stafford is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Relying on rookies to contribute in their first year is a dangerous game, and I know I just spent two paragraphs talking about the Ram’s rookies that contributed in their first year. With ten draft picks as of this writing they’re not going to need them like they needed last season’s rookie class. They have plenty of flexibility to upgrade the roster without chasing needs. They made the playoffs last year with virtually no one expecting them to, and I’d be surprised if they weren’t back in the playoffs next season.
New York Jets: I’m assuming the Jet’s won’t have the worst quarterback play in the entire league for two years in a row. If Rodgers is healthy last season I don’t see how they don’t jump from 7-10 to at least 10-7 and push for a playoff bid.
They’re likely going to lose Bryce Huff and Carl Lawson, but their defensive line is so stacked it won’t hurt them as much as other teams. They do need to find another playmaker to pair with Garrett Wilson and figure out what they’re doing at offensive tackle.
But if Rodgers isn’t on the field it doesn’t matter what they do. Even if they get Kirk Cousins type production out of 40 year old Aaron Rodgers they’ll be locked into a playoff spot next year.
Seattle Seahawks: One of my most disappointing teams of 2023, their season really came down to two losses to the Rams that put LA in the playoffs and kept Seattle at home.
Basically their entire linebacking unit will be free agents, which is of course suboptimal.
On the bright side, they have a fantastic young group of players on rookie deals. Both their starting tackles, two of their starting cornerbacks, their two starting running backs, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are all on rookie contracts. Not quite Detroit, but great building blocks at important positions.
They’ve been trying to fix their pass rush for years, and I don’t believe they’ll have the flexibility to try and patch it up via free agency. If their pass rush improves it will be because young players like Boye Mafe step their game up, or new head coach Mike Macdonald works his magic and replicates some of what he was able to do at Baltimore and the University of Michigan. The defensive roster is better than they played. That’s a big reason they brought in Mcdonald instead of an offensive guy like most of the NFL is trending.
They need to address quarterback long term, but Geno is the guy in 2024. He’ll need to play closer to 2022 than he did in 2023 for Seattle to get back into the playoffs.
Lots of questions for the Seahawks, but they have enough pieces in the right places where I’m betting they bounce back after a disappointing season.
Washington Commanders: “Commanders” is such a stupid name. With that said, I’m scared by how high I am on Washington next season.
Their roster is good, it’s certainly better than the 4-13 record they put on display last season. Admittedly, it was a much better roster before they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat. The fastest way for a season to go down the drain is to have multiple injuries at the same position. Washington just skipped the injury part and got rid of half their defensive line for fun.
Edge is a position they’re going to have to get sorted out. Luckily for them they have the most cap space in the NFL with a whopping $96 million, and six draft picks in the top 102 draft picks.
Marcus Davenport, Derek Barnett, Dante Fowler Jr., Clelin Ferril, A.J. Epenesa, Bryce Huff. There are plenty of free agents for Washington to throw money at, really to the degree they feel they need to. Benjamin St. Juste is the only secondary player I’m really attached to. I'll be interested to see if Dan Quinn tries to bring Jourdan Lewis with him from Dallas to Washington.
TLDR: Most of their cap space should be spent on defense with a bit of it going towards solidifying the offensive line. If they do free agency right then they’ll be able to use all their draft picks to take the best players available instead of reaching to fill a need that they couldn’t fix in March. It’s realistic to say that every position group will get upgraded going into next season. The Commanders are my pick to go from last to first in their division and win the NFC East.
Stuck in Neutral
Carolina Panthers: On the brightside it can’t get any worse, but I don’t see how 2024 is going to get any better. An abjectly terrible roster with no first round pick, and only six picks in the entire 2024 draft. Throw in an owner who knows nothing about football and is trying to dictate the team’s RPO rate, and you’re in for a disaster.
On the brightside, they have the cap space to sign Brian Burns to a major extension. The Panthers turned down two first round picks for Brian Burns a couple years ago, and even though that was a different front office it’d be a tough look to let him walk for a 3rd round comp pick when you can extend him easily. They placed the franchise tag on Burns, but ideally they get an extension worked out before the season starts. I refuse to believe Bryce Young is as bad as he played his rookie year. He did have some brutal mistakes he didn’t show at Alabama, but I’m going to blame that on the dumpster fire that was going on in Charlotte last year.
Dave Canales was one of the two best head coaching candidates this offseason, with David Shaw being the other. So Carolina couldn’t have hired a better head coach. I just don’t think it’s going to matter as long as David Tepper is running the show. Tepper has shown no ability to demonstrate any semblance of patience, and every thing he does is detrimental to the organization. He’s doing the same thing with Charlotte FC, the MLS team he also owns. Honestly, if I were a Panthers fan, I’d just head down to Cookout, get a nice Peanut Butter Oreo shake, and find a new hobby until Tepper sells the team to someone competent.
Dallas Cowboys: I’m honestly surprised they’ve gotten as far as they have under Mike McCarthy. Which is basically nowhere, which is also where they’ve been the last thirty years. Congrats on going 12-5 though.
As of this writing the Cowboys are over the cap heading into the start of the off season. Their starting left tackle, center, running back, cornerback, and strong safety are all free agents. CeeDee Lamb is playing on the 5th year option on his rookie deal, so pretty soon they’re going to have to pony up $30+ million for him. Micah Parsons could be due for a $40 million per year contract the following offseason. So within two years the Cowboys could be paying $120 million just for Dak, Lamb, and Parsons.
That means they need to hit on their draft picks the next few seasons. Dallas' 2023’s draft was meh at best, so 2024 has to be a hit. Fortunately, their needs line up pretty well with the draft board. Unfortunately they’re only scheduled to have five picks as of this writing.
At pick twenty-four at least one of Tyler Guyton, JC Latham, Troy Fautanu, Jordan Morgan, or Graham Barton should be available. At pick fifty-six in the second round Ja’Lynn Polk, Ricky Pearsall, or Jamari Thrash could all be available, and I’d be surprised if Pearsall or Thrash weren’t. They’re all different receivers, but would all bring something to the Cowboys’ offense that they’re either lacking now or could be lacking shortly.
Their top players are so talented I don’t expect a major drop off next season, but long term they are going to have a lot of complicated roster questions to fix.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos actually have a really good roster, a roster that should be much better than their record. Patrick Surtain II is as good as any cornerback in the league. I saw him play in person in his rookie year, and was blown away with how physically imposing he is. Add his great feel for the game, fluid change of direction, and you’ve got one of the best defensive players in the entire league.
Both their offensive tackles are plus players, I think. Heaven knows I missed Mike McGlinchey in San Francisco this past season, and Bolles isn’t perfect but I trust him over most left tackles in the league. They don’t have an A+ receiver but they have several B to B+ guys with Tim Patrick, Cortland Sutton, and Marvin Mims. The entire defense is full of athletic playmakers, Caden Sterns and Baron Browning being my favorite of the bunch.
There are certainly upgrades to be made, but it’s a roster that should be in the playoffs. The only problem happens to be the biggest problem a team can have; they’re paying Russell Wilson $39 million to not be on their roster, with an $85 million dead cap hit.
Sean Payton was brought in partially to fix the mess that Russell Wilson and the 2022 Bronco’s put on the field, but he's only extrapolated the issues that Wilson has.. Possibly the worst head coach, quarterback combination in the league in terms of how they each want to play.
Russ wants to cook, he wants to make plays, he wants to let the ball fly. He has one of the best deep balls in the league, it’s part of what made his career and helped him get his Super Bowl ring. It’s understandable that if something has worked for him his entire career then it’d be tough to convince him to do something completely different.
Everything I just described is a nightmare for Sean Payton though. He wants to send five out and get the ball out quick. The offense revolves around the quarterback being on time and on target. You watch Drew Brees play with Sean Payton, Brees hits his drop back and BAM balls out.
I love the idea of Denver drafting Bo Nix in the first round. Nix is someone who can create out of structure, which you still need to be able to do. At Oregon he showed that he can run the offense like a point guard, and that’s exactly what Payton wants to do. Nix also has the record for most quarterback starts in college history, so he’s literally played more (college) football than any quarterback prospect in history. I believe he’s someone who could step into the roster that Denver already has and take them to the playoffs.
If they draft Nix then Denver has a chance to improve on last season, if they don’t go after a quarterback in the first round then I have no idea what they’re going to do next season.
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts were one game away from winning the AFC South last season, but couldn’t get it done against CJ Stroud and the Texans. Suddenly the Colts find themselves in a division full of talented young quarterbacks, and I believe the division with the best quarterbacks in the AFC. The Colts now have to beat CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, and Will Levis to be crowned division champs.
Anthony Richardson looked dynamic before he got hurt, and should be ready to roll by kick off next fall. The worst part about Richardson’s injury wasn’t the impact on this season, but that he missed all those game reps he would’ve gotten if he had been healthy.
Richardson’s best playmaker, Michael Pittman Jr., is a free agent in a shallow wide receiver free agent class. The Colts have nearly $80 million in cap space, so plenty of ability to bring him back. The only thing I think that would keep them from re-signing Pittman is if another team is offering a massive contract that the Colts don’t feel is worth matching.
If they keep Pittman they’ll still need to find another offensive weapon. If they don’t re-sign Pittman, then they’ll be in desperation mode trying to find another pass catcher for Anthony Richardson. Josh Downs was a fantastic pick last year, someone I got to see live in college for North Carolina and wasn’t surprised at all at the impact he made his rookie year. He is purely a slot guy, though, and the Colts need someone who can create separation downfield and stretch the defense.
Hollywood Brown would be an intriguing free agent signing, if they can keep Pittman I think Brown would fit perfectly with Pittman and Downs. If they’re unable to fill their receiver needs in free agency then Troy Franklin from Oregon is an explosive receiver who’s dangerous with the ball in his hands who I think would be a great compliment to what Indianapolis already has. The Colts first pick is at fifteen overall, which is on the high end for Franklin, so without a trade down that pairing might not happen, but I’d love to see it.
If Richardson is healthy and they can keep Pittman and get that third receiver I think the Colts can be really dangerous next year. It will be an uphill battle to get past Houston in that division though, so I don’t see the Colts getting into the playoffs next season without some major shake ups.
Jacksonville Jaguars: A playoff team in 2022 that took a step back in 2023. Trevor Lawrence is a good quarterback, but so far hasn’t played up to his mostly unfair lofty expectations.
It feels like a roster that’s close but not quite where it needs to be. I’m not out on 2022 first overall pick Travon Walker at all; but it’s undeniably tough when the second pick in that draft, Aidan Hutchinson, has been spectacular in Detroit. They could’ve signed pass rusher Josh Allen to a much cheaper extension than he’d command now, to the point where the Jags basically have no option but to franchise tag him. Deciding not to extend Allen last season could ultimately cost them a 2nd round pick.
In the Calvin Ridley trade with the Falcons, part of the deal is that if Ridley signs an extension with Jacksonville then the Jaguars have to send a second round pick to Atlanta. If the Jaguars franchise tag Ridley, they get to keep that second round pick. That’s not really an option anymore so they’re going to end up paying more money and giving away more draft picks than necessary. Nice to see that general manager Trent Baalke hasn’t changed one bit since leaving San Francisco.
Positives are that Trevor Lawrence is still very good and still on his rookie deal. I love their free safety Andre Cisco, who’s also on his rookie deal. Josh Allen is coming back one way or another. Like the Colts, this division is so tough now though.
They only have about $30 million in cap space, and most of that is going to be spent on their own guys. They have six draft picks in the top 150 (top 151 really…) so they have the ability to load up on cheap talent if they draft well. Trent Baalke hasn’t shown an ability to do that yet, but we’ll see what happens. It’s also tough to rely on rookies to contribute which is kind of the spot the Jags are in. Even though it's very possible for them to win the division, there’s just too many things that have to go right for me to bank on it.
Kansas City Chiefs: Can’t get better than being the champs.
This is going to be a pretty easy write up. No matter what happens there’s nothing that can convince me that Kansas City can’t win the Super Bowl again. They looked so shaky in the regular season, to the point where I did the one thing I said I’d never do: bet against Mahomes.
Baltimore was the best team in the NFL in at least the past five years in my opinion, and Kansas City made them look overwhelmed and unable to find any answer, in Baltimore. I can’t imagine what Buffalo fans must be feeling, it’s just the same terrible ending over and over and over again with no end in sight.
As far as the actual Chiefs roster goes they’re in an interesting spot. I can’t think higher of a player than I do of Trent McDuffie. He was awesome at Washington in college and has been stellar in the NFL. The University of Washington is an underrated candidate for DBU, they consistently put really good guys in the league.
The Chief’s other cornerback, L’Jarius Sneed is set to become a free agent and command a massive contract. The Chiefs announced that they intend to franchise tag him, and seek a contract extension or trade from that point. Defensive tackle Chris Jones stated at the parade that he’s coming back, his contract negotiations have been going on for years it seems like, they’ll have to give him some sort of major deal. Linebackers Willie Gay Jr., and Drue Tranquill are both free agents as well; I don’t think Kansas City’s linebackers have gotten enough credit for their role in the defense the last few years, and I think they’d like to keep Gay especially, but really both those guys.
It kinda doesn’t matter though right? Like who cares who the other fifty-two players on the roster are as one of them is Patrick Mahomes.
Los Angeles Chargers: Lots of change in Los Angeles this off season. Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco are out the door. Everyone’s favorite Michigan Man Jim Harbaugh is back in town, along with Joe Horitz who’s coming over from the Ravens to be the general manager. Harbaugh is getting the old gang back together, bringing back Greg Roman who ran the offense for Harbaugh with the 49ers.
Bringing in a proven coach to work with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL is an automatic way to improve your stock, but the roster and cap have both been so mismanaged that it’s tough to find other ways for the Chargers to tangibly improve.
Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams all have cap hits over $30 million this season. That’s about half of your cap space on four guys who are great when healthy, but it’s almost a lock they’re going to miss part of the season.
It’s also a team that has either nailed their first round picks or completely whiffed recently. Derwin James and Rashawn Slater are awesome, Quentin Johnston and Kenneth Murray haven’t quite had the impact they’ve needed to. I loved Kenneth Murray coming out of Oklahoma, he’s just too downhill and doesn’t have the coverage to play in today’s league.
If they can get the cap situation sorted out in the next couple years I think they’ll be fine. Drafting Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick to play alongside Rashawn Slater and solidify both tackle spots for the next ten years would be a home run. Or they could trade back with a team who’s trying to move up for a quarterback to load the roster with cheap young talent and combat the bad salary cap situation.
2024 isn’t gonna be stellar, but long term if they play their cards right the Chargers can become a serious contender pretty quick.
Minnesota Vikings: 7-10 with inconsistent quarterback play I think was a pretty good season for the Vikings. The best receiver in the league missed seven full games, and wasn’t able to be 100% for a few other ones. The Vikings quarterback play was inconsistent at best after Kirk Cousins injured his achilles and missed the second half of the year.
Cousins has been linked to basically every team that needs a quarterback this off-season. Minnesota could resign him if they wanted to, but it’s seeming more and more like they’re going to roll with a cheaper option. They’ve been linked to both Bo Nix from Oregon and J.J. McCarthy from Michigan, and I think either of those quarterbacks would be a great fit with their first round selection. It’d allow Minnesota to go a lot cheaper at the quarterback position, and whoever comes in is going to be throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison; hard to get a more quarterback friendly situation for a rookie.
Defensively, both Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport are free agents so they’ll also need to reload their pass rush somehow. Emmanuel Ogbah, Dante Fowler Jr., and Bud Dupree are veteran edge rushers I think the Vikings could sign without breaking the bank. Camryn Bynum is an awesome safety from Cal who’s played really well for Minnesota; Harrison Smith isn’t getting any younger at the other safety spot though. Bynum’s college teammate, Ashytn Davis, is a free agent who’d be intriguing for Minnesota to bring in. Davis ran hurdles for the Golden Bears in college, and I think has been a good NFL player who Minnesota could add without committing too much financially.
Ultimately getting cheaper at quarterback, edge, and in the secondary are going to help balance out the roster. I know those aren’t generally the positions you want to go cheap at, but the way the Vikings roster is set up they’re threading the needle a bit. If they get cheap value at those three spots they can be a borderline playoff team in a tough NFC North.
New England Patriots: Oh how the mighty have fallen.
I still can’t even imagine the thought process that went into taking Mac Jones in the first round, that was never going to work, and now he’ll be backing up Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville.
The Patriots have been linked to a quarterback with the third overall pick, but even if that quarterback hits they’re not in a position to take advantage of a talented quarterback on a rookie contract.
New England needs to upgrade literally every position, last year’s first round pick Christian Gonzalez is the only player I’m excited about on that roster. The New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders are all teams that could potentially be looking to trade up and take whoever that third quarterback ends up being.
Instead of throwing Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels into the fire, why not take the next couple years and really attack the holes in this roster. Projecting out to the 2026 NFL draft is a risky game, but there are a ton of quarterbacks who will be eligible in 2026 who I’m really excited about.
You can’t rush these things, it sucks knowing that you’re going to be terrible for at least two years. Build it up the right way though, reload this roster so that when you do draft a quarterback he’ll be able to step in and day one elevate your team.
Philadelphia Eagles: Just an absolutely embarrassing way to end the season; losing five out of your last six, including two blowouts from the Niners and Cowboys. They had that division all but locked up, and gift wrapped it to Dallas because they couldn’t beat Drew Lock in Seattle. They then followed that up by losing to the Cardinals at home, effectively ending their season two weeks before their playoff loss to the Bucs.
Is the Super Bowl hangover that real? Why was A.J. Brown so mad all the time when he was at worst the second best receiver in the league for most of last season? Does Nick Sirianni not know how to conduct a coordinator interview? When are the Eagles hosting open linebacker tryouts? All important questions that must be addressed before the next season kicks off.
I refused to believe that they weren’t going to turn it around, and they just never did. How can a team with Jalen Hurts and Jason Kelce seem so devoid of leadership? They better look in the mirror and get it fixed quick or everybody in the building is going to be updating their LinkedIn profile.
I’m assuming Kelce isn’t playing next season, so they need to find a replacement on the interior offensive line. Ironically, I think Lane Johnson is going to be harder to replace even though he’s still on the team. Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson both played center in college, so either of them could slide to center and Jack Driscoll could feasibly slide into the guard spot. Lane Johnson will be 34 this season, and you have to start trying to find his replacement.
The NFL Draft is LOADED with offensive tackles. Tyler Guyton from Oklahoma or Amarius Mims from Georgia could still be on the board at pick twenty-two.
There will also be some quality cornerbacks at that point, and I know Eagles fans are clamoring for a better secondary. I think corner will be easier to fill in free agency with possibly Rock-Ya Sin or Bryce Hall. They do need to spend a lot of draft capital in the secondary as well, but they should probably wait till the later rounds. Adding a third receiver, two linebackers, and realistically three running back spots are easy places that Philadelphia can upgrade their roster.
Doesn’t take long to see that this roster is top heavy but has a lot of issues that need to get fixed in order to become a serious Super Bowl contender again. Howie Roseman has his work cut out for him this offseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Tomlin should have a Nobel Prize at this point. We all thought Antonio Brown was just a regular person, then he leaves Pittsburgh for like a week and everything just goes to pot. The Steelers have been over .500 for twenty years in a row, and it's impossible to put into words how impressive that is.
What’s most impressive is the last few years they’ve been able to keep winning with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterbacks. Former offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, is one of those folks who got a promotion from college to the NFL despite not having demonstrated an ability to be competent in his current role. Surprised he got hired by head coach Mike Tomlin, also surprised it took so long to make a change there. I’ll be a George Pickens defender until I wither away, but he just hasn’t been in an environment to be successful. Canada all but refused to target the middle of the field last year, leaving Pickens stranded on the outside trying to track down Pickett’s deep balls. We can blame some of the inability to attack the middle of the field on the protection but even at the University of Pittsburgh and LSU Canada’s offense always had a certain stubbornness to it.
Bringing in former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith to run the offense in general is a move I like. The reason he’s not in Atlanta is that he refused to give the ball to his best players. I actually really like the offense that Smith runs. Smith likes to give the quarterback multiple answers and get the ball out quickly. Smith will be working with former Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, who talent wise is certainly an upgrade over Pickett and Rudolph. I don’t love the stylistic fit between Smith and Rudolph. Both of them just came from situations that showed they clearly can’t just do whatever they want and expect it to work out. I’m hoping both of them come into this season with open eyes and find some compromise in styles. 2022 was terrible for Wilson but last season wasn’t bad at all. I think signing Wilson and hiring Arthur Smith gives Pittsburgh a real chance to be an above average offensive team in 2024.
The defense has multiple pro-bowl level pieces on it: T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and rookies last season Joey Porter Jr. and Keeanu Benton both played exceptionally well. They still have spots to upgrade for sure, but the defense is in pretty good shape considering how many high level players they have.
The offensive depth chart really isn’t that bad either. The offensive line can be upgraded of course, but the receiver room top to bottom is above average. They gotta find a way to upgrade the quarterback position though if they want to win a playoff game.
They don’t have a ton of cap space, but they’re not losing any of their own major guys in free agency. 2024 will mostly be a get the band back together situation. There aren’t a ton of ways to improve the quarterback situation outside of just praying that Kenny Pickett plays better. As of right now they don’t seem to have the cap space to sign Kirk Cousins to the deal he’s going to want, and I wouldn’t advocate paying that anyways. Trading for Justin Fields seems like the easiest way to at least improve the floor of your quarterback play. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was notorious in Atlanta for not getting the ball to his playmakers, but I do believe he runs a good offensive system and it’d be an improvement from the situation Justin Fields has in Chicago. If they can give Chicago like a 3rd and conditional 5th that can turn into a 4th for Fields I think that’d be well worth the investment for Pittsburgh.
J.J. McCarthy would be the best fit as far as available rookie quarterbacks go. I’d love to see Bo Nix in more of a quick hitting offense that gives him some flexibility to create on his own (see Denver); and Michael Penix in a vertical passing offense (2021 Tampa Bay would be ideal). McCarthy has the most experience under center, hitting five and seven step drops, using play action. I don’t think McCarthy will be available at pick nineteen when Pittsburgh is picking in the first round. If he slips a bit, though, I’d love to see Pittsburgh be aggressive and go get their guy.
San Francisco 49ers: The good news is that the 49ers are essentially running back. The bad news is that running it back rarely works; i.e., the Eagles last season.
Christian McCaffrey was deservedly in the MVP conversation last season and won offensive player of the year. He’ll also be twenty-eight when the season kicks off this fall. Trent Williams might be the best left tackle of all time, he’ll be thirty-six when the season starts and the rest of the offensive line is trash. Every starting safety from last season is either recovering from a major knee injury or on AARP. Fred Warner is the best linebacker in the league; and his fellow starter Dre Greenlaw messed up his achilles just by running onto the field in the Super Bowl, he wasn’t even doing anything. Brandon Aiyuk was second team all-pro last season but no one knows if he even wants to play in San Francisco.
Everyone keeps talking about how great the roster is, which is honestly unbelievable considering how poorly they’ve drafted lately. Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, and Deforest Buckner are the only first round picks who are still on the roster; Javon Kinlaw is a free agent who looks like he won’t be coming back to Santa Clara. Over the last few years they’ve spent multiple third round picks on running backs and the twentieth (20th!!!!!) most accurate kicker in the league. In my opinion, there are four players from the last three draft classes who are above average: Ambry Thomas, Deommodore Lenoir, Talanoa Hufuanga, and Ji’Ayir Brown. All of which play in the secondary, which ironically is the worst part of the defense. I’m a die hard 49ers fan, and every April I want to walk into the ocean watching the draft. It’s hard for me to complain too much because they’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the last few years, but it’s also a team that really should be in a much much better position than they are.
The Steve Wilks hire was weird, I think he’s a really good coach and should’ve been the head coach in Carolina this season, he kinda dodged a bullet with that one though. He was just a weird fit with Kyle and the defense Kyle wanted to run. I was shocked when they hired him and not surprised when they parted ways, not because of him as a coach, just the scheme fit. They still haven’t hired a defensive coordinator, but whoever they hire will either get a head coaching job or get fired in two years anyways so who cares.
So many things went right for the 49ers last season, and so many things needed to go right for them to win the NFC. Remember that three game stretch when they lost three in a row and a lot of their studs were injured? If any of them get an actual long term injury that could be the season. Brock Purdy is a good quarterback, the best San Francisco has had, I would say, since Steve Young, and at the very least the best under Kyle Shanahan. If Trent or McCaffrey or Deebo miss any significant time then the top seed is not happening.
Over half the NFC is going to be improved from last season. At best the 49ers will be essentially the same, they have no tangible ways of improving the roster. Ideally a couple rookies pop off; but you cannot bank on rookies being substantial contributors, especially the way that the 49ers draft.
Best case scenario is they repeat as NFC champs, get back to the Super Bowl, and actually decide to block people on third down this time. As of right now the 49ers would be my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. I know I’ve been pretty negative, but reality is they have four guys who are the best players at their position: Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner. They have as much all-pro level talent as anyone in the league, and the best offensive play caller in the league. If they don’t repeat as NFC champs injuries would be the most likely reason why.
Hustlin’ Backwards
Baltimore Ravens: This is more of a reflection of how dominant the Ravens were in 2023 than a negative 2024 projection. The Ravens had a +203 point differential, the best in the NFL since the 2019 Baltimore Ravens, who were at an unbelievable +249. I think Baltimore was the best team in the NFL since at least the 2016 New England Patriots, and maybe even going back to the 2013 Denver Broncos. This is all subjective of course, obviously the 2019 Ravens had the best point differential but I think both those Patriots and Broncos teams would beat them.
The point differential is one thing, but what made Baltimore so special was how they dominated every other good team that they played. They embarrassed the 49ers in Santa Clara and ruined my Christmas—though I will say if Kyle Hamilton doesn’t get that red zone interception I think it would’ve been a much closer game. The Ravens smoked Houston twice, which was a much better win than we all thought it’d be after week one. They housed the Lions in a game that was all but over after the first two drives, Detroit just didn’t have a prayer in that game. They beat Seattle 37-3, who I know didn’t make the playoffs but beating any NFL team by nearly five touchdowns is noteworthy. They also beat Miami 56-19, making a team that nearly set the single game scoring record earlier in the year look like the New York Jets.
What happened against Kansas City in the playoffs, I don’t know. We’ve tried to explain it away by saying that the Ravens refused to run the ball and this, that, and the other. I just think the Chiefs are really good. The plays that Baltimore was calling were there. On the first drive they dropped a would-be first down, then the Chiefs took the ball and drove down the field in ten plays and scored. The Ravens just couldn’t get into rhythm the rest of the game, but the game plan wasn’t terrible. It was more of an execution problem.We can blame that on the Chiefs defensive playmakers, their defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, or too many dropped passes/missed offensive plays are valid.
The criticism of Lamar not being able to get it done in the playoffs I hear, but I’m not buying. The Texans game was in the playoffs, and I don’t think he played poorly in the Chiefs game. He just didn’t do enough to beat Mahomes, which essentially no one has been able to do.
The Ravens are scheduled to have a lot of roster attrition, the likely loss of linebacker Patrick Queen being the biggest one. They only have about $16 million in cap space as of this writing, so could realistically move some things around to try and sign him to an extension. More likely though is they’re going to continue to rely on drafting well, having players on rookie contracts continue, and hopefully for Lamar adding to the receiving corps. I think both Tyler Boyd and Van Jefferson would be reliable additions and would give Baltimore a little bit more flexibility on offense.
The Bengals are going to be better just from Joe Burrow being presumably healthy, but it’s still a division that the Ravens can win. There’s just no way they’ll be the best team in the last ten years like they were this season.
Buffalo Bills: Two seasons ago was really the season that I looked to as Buffalo’s last legitimate shot to win it all. This past season the roster just got too old and too expensive. They made a great run to even get into the playoffs which was great, but they’d put themselves in a position where they needed a semi-miracle run just to make the playoffs.
They’re a league worst $41 million over the salary cap as of this writing. I’m sure they’re going to defer a lot of that to future years somehow, but how much of that do you really want to be doing? Do you want to be locked into owing thirty-five year old Von Miller money in future years? After next season they can move on from Stefon Diggs with a $22 million cap hit; I don’t think they’ll want to do that but you have to keep the flexibility to do so.
They’re also in a tight spot draft wise where there is basically no way to keep Gabe Davis or replace him in free agency. When they’re on the clock at pick twenty-eight there will 100% be a really good receiver still available: Troy Franklin (Oregon), Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU), Xavier Worthy (Texas), Adonai Mitchell (Texas), Ladd McConkey (Georgia), and Keion Coleman (Florida State) won’t all be available but a good majority of them will be. I like Troy Franklin and Brian Thomas Jr. if we’re talking strictly a compliment to Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, but you want to take the best guy and not the best guy for 2024.
Micah Hyde is the biggest projected loss to free agency on their roster, he has been really really important for them. The defense collectively needs to get younger though, which is where I imagine they’ll go with their second and sixtieth picks. Again, they’re pigeonholed into drafting certain positions and then relying on those rookies to produce, a really bad spot to be in.
Edge Jonah Elliss (Utah), defensive tackle Kris Jenkins (Michigan), cornerback Mike Sainristil (Michigan), defensive tackle Braden Fiske (Florida State), edge Bralen Trice (Washington), and defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro (Clemson) could be on the board when the Bills are on the clock in the second round. I know that’s a lot of defensive lineman, and that’s not a major need, but that's just how I think the board might fall.
Next year, they’ll still be the favorites to win the division. I'm picking the Jets, but the Bills should be the favorite. 2024 has a ceiling of another divisional round loss, and a floor of having the wheels fall off and missing the playoffs all together. I’m not sure which one would be worse for Bills fans.
Cleveland Browns: Cleveland might’ve had the most brutal ending to last season in the entire league. They lost to Houston in the Wild Card round; which not only meant their season was over, but because they made the playoffs they had to give their first round pick to the same team that just beat them, one of multiple first round picks in the Deshaun Watson trade. Giving a team three first round picks just for the privilege of losing to them in the playoffs is brutal.
Like a lot of teams trending in the wrong direction, the Browns are losing significant players with no real way of replacing them. Za’Darius Smith was a really important piece of their defensive line opposite Myles Garrett. Smith only had five and a half sacks last season, but generated sixty pressures which is much more indicative of the impact he was having.
Joe Flacco wants to play in 2024, and there’s not really a reason for him not to. At the very least Flacco played as well as the Browns $230 million man Deshaun Watson. I think Flacco was a somewhat significant upgrade, which is bad for Cleveland for a lot of reasons. I would assume that Cleveland goes with Deshaun Watson simply to justify the trade and the contract they gave him.
Acquiring Jerry Jeudy from Denver should have zero impact on their need to draft a receiver. Ja’Lynn Polk (Washington), Jalen McMillan (Washington), Jamari Thrash (Louisville), or Jacob Cowing (Arizona) could all be available with one of their first two picks. Adisa Isaac (Penn State), Bralen Trice (Washington), Austin Booker (Kansas), or Gabriel Murphy (UCLA) are all defensive lineman who could ideally make an impact and help keep a strength with the other day two pick that Cleveland has.
So many things went right for Cleveland last year, including Joe Flacco playing probably the best football of his entire career. There is no way they’ll go 11-6 again unless they somehow replicate their quarterback play. Cincinnati is going to be much better, Baltimore still has Lamar Jackson, and Pittsburgh will hypothetically add a third route to George Pickens’ repertoire next season. It will be harder for Cleveland than any other team in the league to replicate their 2023 win total.
Miami Dolphins: Not only do the Dolphins have negative cap space, a handful of substantial players set to hit free agency, and not a lot of draft capital; Tua Tagovailoa is also entering the last year of his deal. They’re either going to have to find the money to pay him or start all over at quarterback.
The biggest free agents Miami is set to lose are linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, center Connor Williams, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, and edge Emmanuel Ogbah. Wilkins was maybe the best defensive tackle in the the league this season, registering fifty-eight pressures and nine sacks with an 11% pressure rate last season. Absolutely bonkers numbers for an interior defensive lineman. PFF graded Andrew Van Ginkel as a top ten edge defender last season with eight sacks, fifty-three pressures, and also had the second highest coverage grade among edge defenders.
Everyone on the offensive line outside of Terron Armstead needs to be replaced or upgraded, and Armstead himself will be thirty-three when the season kicks off. A third receiver would really help the offense out, partially for depth and partially for injury protection for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
In addition to figuring out Tua's contract, safety Javon Holland will be a free agent after this season as well, so they have to try and figure out a way to keep him around. As far as Tua’s contract, the tenth highest paid quarterback per average annual value is Josh Allen ($43 million per year); Tua isn’t going to be the highest paid guy but I’m not sure he’d sign a contract that puts him lower than the tenth highest paid guy. Do you want to pay Tua $50 million per year? I certainly don’t, head coach Mike McDaniel likely does, but that’s going to put them in an impossible roster situation.
To sum up: the Dolphins are losing their best players on defense, can’t pay their quarterback without losing even more defensive players, and don't have an ability to upgrade the people protecting Tua or the people who he’s throwing the ball to. Other than that they should be in great shape.
New Orleans Saints: Saints general manager Mickey Loomis wins the award for doing the exact opposite of what I’d do every single year. I would just be so stressed out all the time. They’re always up against the cap and they always restructure contracts to defer money to future years so they can just run it back over and over again despite no evidence that what they’re doing is working.
What they’re left with is an underperforming roster quarterbacked by Derek Carr. What is the benefit of signing Derek Carr? He’s not good enough to win a Super Bowl, and he’s for sure not good enough to win a Super Bowl getting paid thirty-seven million dollars per year.
Cornerback Marshon Lattimore is elite, I love everything about his game. Rookie receiver Chris Olave has been a revelation. Running back Kendre Miller and linebacker Pete Werner are both good players on rookie deals; I know Miller didn’t do much last season but I’m still bought in.
Other than that there’s nothing on the roster that excites me. They routinely fritter away their draft picks to trade up for someone they know is a difference maker, then that player ends up on a different team in four years because they can’t or don’t want to pay them. I wouldn’t be shocked if they traded up from pick fourteen to draft Alabama edge Dallas Turner or Florida State edge Jared Verse. Both should be great NFL players, but if you’re going to be deferring salary year after year and giving the middle finger to the salary cap you become dependent on players on rookie contracts generating production, and you can’t just be throwing away the draft picks you still have.
I just don’t understand what the Saints are doing, at some point they’re going to have to hit rock bottom to try and turn it around. That won’t be this year likely, but it’s going to be a hard drop whenever they do get to that point.
New York Giants: Color me shocked that the Giants are instantly regretting giving a lot of money to a bad quarterback. What an unpredictable outcome that no one could’ve seen coming.
Going back to when Daniel Jones was drafted, my problem was never drafting him at sixth overall. They also had the seventeenth pick in the draft that year, and a lot of folks were saying that they should wait till pick seventeen and draft Daniel Jones at that point. I don’t think you can do that. If you think Daniel Jones is your guy then you can’t wait, you go get your guy at six.
The problem wasn’t drafting him and sixth overall instead of seventeenth, the problem was whatever process they used that made them believe that Daniel Jones would be the guy. Nothing he did at Duke said NFL quarterback, and nothing he’s done in the NFL has changed my opinion on that.
Was he abjectly awful in 2022? No. He was maybe an average quarterback. The rest of the roster had a good year, head coach Brian Daboll did a great job, and they made the playoffs.
Now it’s being reported that the Giants are absolutely done with Daniel Jones, and without a lot of options for how to move on this season. They can move on after next season and *only carry a $22 million dead cap hit. Compared to the $85 million dead cap hit the Broncos are taking for Russell Wilson that doesn’t seem too bad.
The question then becomes who’s going to be the guy to replace Jones? My top quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft as of right now would be Shedeur Sanders (Colorado), Carson Beck (Georgia), and Quinn Ewers (Texas); with obviously a lot that can change over the next year. If the Giants like one of those guys then staying at six or trading back and loading up at receiver or offensive tackle makes a lot of sense. They are not a quarterback away from competing for a Super Bowl, so grabbing a guy like offensive tackle Joe Alt (Notre Dame), or receiver Malik Nabers (LSU) would be much appreciated by whoever is playing quarterback in 2025.
If the Giants decide they don’t like next year's group and want to get one of the top guys this year there’s a couple routes they can take. They can give up a boatload of picks to convince Chicago to move back from the first overall pick so that the Giants can draft Caleb Williams. I’d guess it’d be a similar price to what Carolina paid last year to move up to the first overall pick, if not even more just because of Caleb Williams reputation as the best prospect since at least Trevor Lawrence.
More realistically, they’d trade up with New England to the third overall pick. They’d be getting the third quarterback at that point, likely whichever of Jayden Daniels (LSU) or Drake Maye (UNC) that Washington doesn’t draft. New York would still be giving up their 2025 first rounder, plus some more draft picks on top of that. They’d also have to like both Daniels and Maye enough to be comfortable with either of them.
Technically a third option would be drafting J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) with their current pick at sixth overall; or trading back and drafting Michael Penix (Washington) or Bo Nix (Oregon). I actually like the idea of Michael Penix in New York quite a bit, so if they can get more draft capital and still get Penix I think that’d be a win for the Giants.
Big picture though,no matter who they draft, the roster is not in a good enough place to support them. I think they just have to take their medicine with Daniel Jones, build up the roster, then attack quarterback in 2025 or 2026. I know that’d be tough for Giants fans to sign up for, but you can’t cut corners if you’re going for a Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The defending champs in the NFC South are back in business. Head coach Todd Bowles got a raw deal with the New York Jets, who among us hasn’t gotten a raw deal from the Jets though? I’m really glad he got another opportunity in Tampa and has been taking advantage of it.
The Bucs have been busy this off-season, having already re-signed receiver Mike Evans and tagged safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Linebacker Devin White is a free agent who didn’t have the contract year he was looking for last season, but is still a valuable player I’d bring back if I were general manager Jason Licht.
The biggest question, really the only question the Bucs have, is how much are they going to pay quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield did not receive the franchise tag and will be an unrestricted free agent—I would say the best quarterback on the market. I’d rather have Baker over Kirk Cousins, especially if you factor in the guaranteed money Cousins is going to demand.
The Bucs inked Baker to a three year $100 million deal just before the start of free agency. That’s a great value deal for Tampa, and Baker gets a bit more career stability after playing for four teams in three years from 2021-2023. Baker gives you above average quarterback play for almost half the price of what the top guys are making. The Buccaneers roster is good enough where they’re not going to be in striking distance to trade up for a top quarterback prospect in the next couple of years; so the next best thing is getting a cheaper option and building a great roster around him. The only major question mark I have is that offensive coordinator Canales is now the head coach in Carolina. Jason Licht has to determine how much of a drop off there will be with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen has bounced back and forth between the Los Angeles Rams and the University of Kentucky a couple times; and I’ve been a big fan of his. I think there might be some tweaks but big picture Coen will do a great job with Baker and that offense
They do have some holes to replug on the roster; particularly at edge and in the secondary. They have a great top three receiving corps for 2024 with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Trey Palmer; but they have to start getting younger at that position. The only reason I have them in the trending down category and not in the static group is because I think Atlanta is going to win the division so it might be tough for Tampa to make the playoffs. I also thought the Falcons would win the division last year, so what do I know?
Tennessee Titans: The Titans roster is littered with free agents, out of position players, and folks who can’t see the field despite an obvious need. I understand that sometimes organizations do need a change, but I don’t think replacing Mike Vrabel was the move. What he did in Tennessee compared to what an average coach would’ve done is just night and day. From an outsider's perspective, the Titans had as good of a “culture” as any team in the league.
New head coach, Brian Callahan, did an awesome job in Cincinnati so I do think he’ll do a good job in Tennessee, but he hase an uphill battle roster wise. The only priority this season should be providing second year quarterback Will Levis with as much support as possible. When given the opportunity late last season he certainly looked like he could be their guy at quarterback. They have to know by the end of next season if they have their franchise quarterback or not.
Like seemingly every team drafting in the top ten, they desperately need help at both the receiver and offensive tackle positions. I would expect one of tackles Joe Alt (Notre Dame) or Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State) to be available when the Titans are on the clock with the seventh pick. When they come back with pick thirty-eight there should be a lot of good receiver options still available: Adonai Mitchell (Texas), Xavier Worthy (Texas), Ladd McConkey (Georgia), or Troy Franklin (Oregon), likely won’t all be gone by then.
They could go receiver first and try to get Malik Nabers (LSU) or Rome Odunze (Washington); but there’s more depth at receiver so they can get one of the top tackles with their first pick and still find a receiver who can contribute right away with their second round pick, so that’s the route and the order I’d go.
They have about $80 million in cap space, so plenty of flexibility there. There’s enough offensive line options where I think you can patch those holes without breaking the bank. Laken Tomlinson wasn’t stellar with the Jets, but I think he’d be an upgrade in Tennessee and won’t command a massive contract. Andrus Peat or Cody Whitehair are also solid options who would help solidify everything up front for Tennessee.
They also have enough cap space where they could be in play for some of the defensive line names available. D.J. Reader, Chase Young, Sheldon Rankins, Derek Barnett, and Christian Wilkins could all be intriguing. I know defensive tackle isn’t a major need; but I think the way everything is lining up with their roster, available free agents, and the incoming draft class, defensive tackle in free agency would be an easy way to upgrade their team.
Long term, I think the Titans will be really good. I like their general manager Ran Carthon a lot and think Callahan will be a good head coach. In 2024 though, they have the worst roster in the division, and depending on what you think of Will Levis and Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis the Titans have either third best or worst quarterback in the division. Going to be rough sledding in 2024, but I really like where they’re at as a franchise.
-By Jake Cowden
Photo: Morgan Tencza-USA Today Sports